World
population will age with Increasing speed
over next few decades, then slow
Newswise — The world will experience a significant acceleration in
the speed of population aging over the
coming years but slow down by mid-century,
according to a study by Warren Sanderson,
Professor and Co-Chairman of the Department
of Economics, Stony Brook University; and
colleagues from the World Population Program
at the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis in Austria.
During the 21st century, global aging will peak during the decade
2020 to 2030 and then decelerate, although
there will be further increases in the level
of aging throughout the century.
The research findings will be published in the January 20 online
edition of Nature.
The study uses both traditional measures and new concepts that
include changes in longevity to measure the
speed of population aging in 13 major
regions.
Standard measures of aging are based on a fixed-age boundary,
which, for example, assume that a
60-year-old person in 1900 was as old a
60-year-old person in 2000.
Sanderson and the other researchers introduce and quantify three
new indicators of age that explicitly take
into account changes in the remaining life
expectancy.
“The speed of aging is crucial to understand because it is during
the period of the fastest change when
adjustments will be the most difficult,”
said Sanderson.
“Policy-makers will need to know ahead of time when peak
aging will occur so they can have those
adjustments in place, especially those
dealing with the financing of pensions and
healthcare for the elderly.”
The timing of the peak speed of aging is based on past patterns of
fertility. In the United States and in parts
of Western Europe the timing is measured by
when baby boomers start becoming elderly. In
China, it is determined by the timing of the
implementation of strict fertility control
policies.
Dr. Sanderson’s colleagues include Wolfgang Lutz and Sergei
Scherbov, both of whom are with the World
Population Program, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria and the Vienna Institute of
Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences,
Vienna, Austria.
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