Almost
Half of Americans Do Not Think President
Obama Will be Re-elected
NEW YORK, Sept.
22, 2011 /PRNewswire/
-- After a spirited speech to Congress and
presenting his jobs bill President Obama
starts the fall with the same approval
ratings he had at the end of the summer.
This month, exactly the same as in August,
just one-third of Americans (32%) give the
president positive ratings on the overall
job he is doing while two-thirds (68%) give
him negative ratings.
These are some of the results of The
Harris Poll of
2,462 adults surveyed online between
September 12 and 19, 2011 by Harris
Interactive.
Looking at the ratings on a partisan level,
it's not shocking that almost all
Republicans (96%) and nine in ten
Conservatives (90%) give the President
negative marks, but so do seven in ten
Independents (71%) and almost two-thirds of
Moderates (64%). While majorities of
Democrats (58%) and Liberals (53%) still
give the President positive marks, large
enough numbers of both groups of the
President's traditional supporters (42% of
Democrats and 47% of Liberals) give him
negative ratings, giving the White House and
the re-election team a bit to be concerned
about.
While the President's ratings may continue
to be at his lowest, one small piece of
comfort he has is that he is doing a better
job than Congress. Right now, almost all
Americans (94%) have a negative view of the
overall job Congress is doing and just 6%
give them positive ratings. This low rating
transcends party lines as only 7% of both
Democrats and Republicans and 5% of
Independents give Congress positive marks.
What has bounced back just slightly from
last month is the number of people who think
the country is going in the right direction.
This month, 22% think the country is heading
in the right direction while 78% think
things have gotten off on the wrong track.
While still low, this is better than in
August when only 16% thought things were
going in the right direction and 84% said
they were going off on the wrong track.
One reason for all the negativity is the
concern over economic issues. When asked
what the two most important issues for the
government to address are, half of Americans
(50%) say it is employment and jobs. Another
quarter say the government needs to address
the economy (27%), while 17% say healthcare,
13% say the budget deficit, 11% say the
budget and government spending and 7% each
say taxes and social security.
Looking to next November
Even more disturbing for the White House are
the numbers on likelihood of voting for
President Obama. If the election for
president were to be held today, over half
of Americans (53%) say they would be
unlikely to vote for Barack
Obama while
39% say they would be likely to vote for
him. Almost half (47%) say they would be
very unlikely to vote for President Obama.
Looking at this on a partisan level, nine in
ten Republicans (92%) say they are unlikely
to vote for President Obama as are three in
five Independents (59%). Even among the two
groups who are the President's more staunch
supporters over one in five of both Liberals
(23%) and Democrats (21%) say they are
unlikely to vote for the President if the
election were to be held today.
What is another concern is something that
could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Just three in ten Americans (30%) think
President Obama will be re-elected while
almost half (47%) do not think he will be
re-elected; one-quarter (23%) are not at all
sure. While 51% of Democrats believe
President Obama will be re-elected,
one-quarter do not (24%) and one-quarter are
not at all sure (24%).
So What?
As multiple political commentators have
said, the 2012 general re-election campaign
began with President Obama's recent address
to Congress. Yes, the Republicans still have
to pick their candidate, but the President
is starting to push forward the agenda he
hopes to work his re-election campaign
around next year. If he doesn't do something
and stays mired in these low approval
numbers and negative re-elect numbers, this
election may be over before it even starts.
The only consolation is that the GOP primary
looks like it may be a long one and the
eventual Republican candidate may emerge
tired and possibly wounded after a
blistering primary.
|
TABLE 1
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING - TREND
"How would you rate the overall job
President Barack Obama is doing?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
TREND |
Positive* |
Negative** |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
2011 |
September |
32 |
68 |
|
| |
August |
32 |
68 |
|
|
July |
38 |
62 |
|
|
June |
38 |
62 |
|
|
May 19th |
45 |
55 |
|
|
May 9th |
46 |
54 |
|
|
April |
38 |
62 |
|
|
March |
39 |
61 |
|
|
Feb. |
42 |
58 |
|
|
Jan. |
44 |
56 |
|
|
2010 |
Dec. |
36 |
64 |
|
| |
Nov. |
38 |
62 |
|
|
Oct. |
37 |
63 |
|
|
Sept. |
38 |
62 |
|
|
Aug. |
40 |
60 |
|
|
June |
39 |
61 |
|
|
May |
42 |
58 |
|
|
April |
41 |
59 |
|
|
March |
41 |
59 |
|
|
Jan. |
40 |
60 |
|
|
2009 |
Dec. |
41 |
59 |
|
| |
Nov. |
43 |
57 |
|
|
Oct. |
45 |
55 |
|
|
Sept. |
49 |
51 |
|
|
Aug. |
51 |
49 |
|
|
June |
54 |
46 |
|
|
May |
59 |
41 |
|
|
April |
58 |
42 |
|
|
March |
55 |
45 |
|
|
*Positive = excellent or pretty
good. **Negative = only fair or
poor. |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 2
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY
PARTY & IDEOLOGY
"How would you rate the overall job
President Barack Obama is doing?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
Total |
Political Party |
Political Ideology |
|
|
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
POSITIVE |
32 |
4 |
58 |
29 |
10 |
36 |
53 |
|
|
Excellent |
5 |
* |
12 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
|
|
Pretty good |
27 |
4 |
46 |
27 |
7 |
32 |
45 |
|
|
NEGATIVE |
68 |
96 |
42 |
71 |
90 |
64 |
47 |
|
|
Only fair |
30 |
25 |
34 |
31 |
18 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
Poor |
38 |
71 |
9 |
40 |
71 |
28 |
11 |
|
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to
100% due to rounding |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 3
CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING
"How would you rate the overall job
Co ngress
is doing?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
Total |
Political Party |
|
|
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
POSITIVE |
6 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
Excellent |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
|
|
Pretty good |
6 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
|
|
NEGATIVE |
94 |
93 |
93 |
95 |
|
|
Only fair |
35 |
45 |
29 |
31 |
|
|
Poor |
59 |
48 |
63 |
64 |
|
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to
100% due to rounding |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 4
CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING – TREND
"How would you rate the overall job
Congress is doing?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
TREND |
Positive* |
Negative** |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
2011 |
September |
6 |
94 |
|
| |
August |
5 |
95 |
|
|
July |
8 |
92 |
|
|
June |
11 |
89 |
|
|
May 19th |
12 |
88 |
|
|
May 9th |
13 |
87 |
|
|
April |
8 |
92 |
|
|
March |
10 |
90 |
|
|
February |
14 |
86 |
|
|
January |
16 |
84 |
|
|
2010 |
December |
11 |
89 |
|
| |
November |
13 |
87 |
|
|
October |
11 |
89 |
|
|
September |
13 |
87 |
|
|
August |
15 |
85 |
|
|
June |
14 |
86 |
|
|
May |
15 |
85 |
|
|
April |
16 |
84 |
|
|
March |
10 |
90 |
|
|
Jan. |
16 |
84 |
|
|
2009 |
Dec. |
17 |
83 |
|
| |
Oct. |
16 |
84 |
|
|
Sept. |
19 |
81 |
|
|
Aug. |
22 |
78 |
|
|
June |
25 |
75 |
|
|
March |
29 |
71 |
|
|
2008 |
October |
10 |
86 |
|
| |
August |
18 |
77 |
|
|
June |
13 |
83 |
|
|
February |
20 |
76 |
|
|
2007 |
December |
17 |
79 |
|
| |
October |
20 |
77 |
|
|
April |
27 |
69 |
|
|
February |
33 |
62 |
|
|
2006 |
September |
24 |
73 |
|
| |
May |
18 |
80 |
|
|
February |
25 |
71 |
|
|
January |
25 |
72 |
|
|
*Positive = excellent or pretty
good. **Negative = only fair or
poor. |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 5
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK
"Generally speaking, would you say
things in the country are going in
the right direction or have they
pretty seriously gotten off on the
wrong track?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
TREND |
Right Direction |
Wrong Track |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
2011 |
September |
22 |
78 |
|
| |
August |
16 |
84 |
|
|
July |
25 |
75 |
|
|
June |
32 |
68 |
|
|
May |
39 |
61 |
|
|
April |
26 |
74 |
|
|
January |
37 |
63 |
|
|
2010 |
December |
29 |
71 |
|
| |
April |
39 |
61 |
|
|
2009 |
August |
46 |
54 |
|
| |
January |
19 |
72 |
|
|
2008 |
October |
11 |
83 |
|
| |
February |
23 |
69 |
|
|
2007 |
December |
18 |
74 |
|
| |
February |
29 |
62 |
|
|
2006 |
May |
24 |
69 |
|
| |
February |
32 |
59 |
|
|
2005 |
November |
27 |
68 |
|
| |
January |
46 |
48 |
|
|
2004 |
September |
38 |
57 |
|
| |
June |
35 |
59 |
|
|
2003 |
December |
35 |
57 |
|
| |
June |
44 |
51 |
|
|
2002 |
December |
36 |
57 |
|
| |
June |
46 |
48 |
|
|
2001 |
December |
65 |
32 |
|
| |
June |
43 |
52 |
|
|
2000 |
October |
50 |
41 |
|
| |
June |
40 |
51 |
|
|
1999 |
June |
37 |
55 |
|
| |
March |
47 |
45 |
|
|
1998 |
December |
43 |
51 |
|
| |
June |
48 |
44 |
|
|
1997 |
December |
39 |
56 |
|
| |
April |
36 |
55 |
|
|
1996 |
December |
38 |
50 |
|
| |
June |
29 |
64 |
|
|
1995 |
December |
26 |
62 |
|
| |
June |
24 |
65 |
|
|
1994 |
December |
29 |
63 |
|
| |
June |
28 |
65 |
|
|
1993 |
June |
21 |
70 |
|
| |
March |
39 |
50 |
|
|
1992 |
June |
12 |
81 |
|
| |
January |
20 |
75 |
|
|
1991 |
December |
17 |
75 |
|
| |
January |
58 |
32 |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 6
VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"If the election for president were
to be held today, how likely would
you be to vote for the current
president, Barack Ob ama?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
May 9 |
May 19 |
June |
July |
August |
Sept. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely |
46 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
37 |
39 |
|
|
Very likely |
33 |
32 |
30 |
30 |
27 |
26 |
|
|
Somewhat likely |
14 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
13 |
|
|
Unlikely |
47 |
49 |
52 |
52 |
55 |
53 |
|
|
Somewhat unlikely |
7 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
|
|
Very unlikely |
40 |
41 |
45 |
44 |
48 |
47 |
|
|
Not at all sure |
6 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to
100% due to rounding |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 7
VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA – BY
POLITICAL PARTY
"If the election for president were
to be held today, how likely would
you be to vote for the current
president, Barack Obama?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
Sept. |
Political Party |
Political Ideology |
|
|
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely |
39 |
6 |
72 |
37 |
12 |
45 |
69 |
|
|
Very likely |
26 |
4 |
54 |
20 |
8 |
28 |
52 |
|
|
Somewhat likely |
13 |
3 |
17 |
17 |
4 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
Unlikely |
53 |
92 |
21 |
53 |
85 |
45 |
23 |
|
|
Somewhat unlikely |
7 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
Very unlikely |
47 |
86 |
14 |
45 |
81 |
37 |
15 |
|
|
Not at all sure |
8 |
2 |
7 |
10 |
3 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to
100% due to rounding |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 8
LIKELIHOOD OF OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION
"If you had to say now, do you think
that President Obama will be
re-elected, or not?"
Base: All adults |
|
| |
July |
Sept. |
Political Party |
|
|
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
I think he will be re-elected. |
35 |
30 |
11 |
51 |
27 |
|
|
I do not think he will be
re-elected. |
42 |
47 |
74 |
24 |
49 |
|
|
Not at all sure. |
23 |
23 |
15 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to
100% due to rounding |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TABLE 9
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
"What do you think are the two most
important issues
for the
government to address?"
Spontaneous, unprompted replies
Base: All adults |
|
| |
'97 |
'98 |
'99 |
'00 |
'01 |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
09 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
'11 |
'11 |
'11 |
|
|
May |
Jan |
Feb |
Aug |
Dec |
Dec |
June |
Oct |
Aug |
June |
Oct |
Oct |
Mar |
Nov |
Jan |
Apr |
Nov |
Jan |
May |
Sept |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Employment/jobs |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
21 |
24 |
31 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
50 |
|
|
The economy (non-specific) |
8 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
32 |
34 |
25 |
28 |
19 |
14 |
13 |
64 |
50 |
34 |
32 |
27 |
33 |
24 |
29 |
27 |
|
|
Healthcare (not Medicare) |
10 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
11 |
12 |
25 |
22 |
25 |
47 |
45 |
34 |
30 |
35 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
Budget deficit/National debt |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
3 |
X |
X |
8 |
8 |
12 |
17 |
13 |
|
|
Budget/Government spending |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
5 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
13 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
Taxes |
14 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
6 |
5 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
|
|
Social security |
6 |
6 |
24 |
16 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
|
|
Immigration |
2 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
20 |
12 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
6 |
|
|
Education |
15 |
14 |
21 |
25 |
12 |
11 |
13 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
Wars/Armed conflicts |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
6 |
3 |
|
|
Environment |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
Foreign policy (non-specific) |
3 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
Gas and oil prices |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
2 |
|
|
Bipartisanship |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Military/defense |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
(Programs for) the poor/ poverty |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
* |
4 |
4 |
4 |
* |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Downsizing government |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
* |
X |
X |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Housing |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Obama/president |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Medicare |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Human/civil/women's rights |
2 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Welfare |
14 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
* |
3 |
1 |
2 |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
|
National security |
X |
X |
2 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
(The) war |
X |
X |
X |
X |
12 |
18 |
8 |
35 |
41 |
27 |
24 |
14 |
9 |
9 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
* |
1 |
|
|
Ethics in government |
* |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
|
Homeland/domestic security/public
safety |
X |
X |
X |
X |
8 |
9 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Infrastructure |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Inflation |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
2 |
3 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Terrorism |
X |
X |
X |
X |
22 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
Energy |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Crime/violence |
19 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
|
Afghanistan |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
|
|
Homelessness |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
3 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
|
|
Business accountability/bailouts |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
|
|
Religion (decline of) |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
|
|
Same sex rights |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
|
|
Iraq |
* |
* |
1 |
X |
X |
11 |
3 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
14 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
|
|
Abortion |
2 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
|
Programs for the elderly (not
Medicare/Social Security) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
|
Income gap/Wealth
distribution/Middle class |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
1 |
1 |
x |
|
|
Overspending/wasting money |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
2 |
x |
|
|
Judicial/Legal Issues |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
x |
|
|
Other |
8 |
19 |
2 |
19 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
15 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
|
|
Not sure/refused/no issue |
9 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
* = Less than 0.5%, X = Not
mentioned as specific issue
Note: Prior to March, 2009, this
question was asked via telephone |
|
