RAND
study finds Senior drivers less likely than
youngest drivers to cause accidents
Drivers 65 and older are just one-third as likely
as drivers 18 to 25 to cause auto accidents, and
not much more likely than drivers 26 to 64 to
cause accidents, according to a RAND Corporation
study
issued today.
“While driving ability declines with age for most
people, those seniors who continue to drive
appear to be safer drivers than the general
public might think,” said David Loughran, a RAND
senior economist and professor at the
Pardee RAND Graduate
School who is the lead author of the
study. “By far, it is the youngest drivers who
pose the greatest risk to traffic safety.”
Researchers found that in 2001, people 65 and
older accounted for about 15 percent of all
licensed drivers but caused only about 7 percent
of all accidents in the United States. By
contrast, people ages 18 to 25 accounted for
just 13 percent of all licensed drivers, but
caused 43 percent of all accidents.
Because senior citizens are generally in poorer
health and more frail than younger people,
drivers 65 and older are at much greater risk of
serious injury or death when they do have an
accident, according to the study by RAND, a
nonprofit research organization. Senior drivers
are nearly seven times more likely than younger
drivers to be killed in a two-car accident.
“Seniors who drive pose a much larger risk to
themselves than to others,” Loughran said. “As
the U.S. population ages, injury rates will
increase — not because seniors cause more
accidents, but because seniors are more
vulnerable to injury when they get into an
accident.”
It is projected that by 2025, drivers 65 and
older will represent 25 percent of the driving
population, compared with 14 percent in 2001.
Previous research has shown that as people age,
their driving ability becomes impaired.
“Seniors appear to make fairly sound decisions
about when to reduce the amount they drive or
stop driving altogether,” Loughran said. “Not
only do seniors drive much less than younger
drivers, but they drive at safer times during
the day and avoid poorer road conditions.”
The study estimated accident risks by examining
more than 170,000 fatal traffic accidents
crashes around the United States between 1976
and 2003 among adult drivers in three age
groups: 18 to 25; 26 to 64; and 65 and older.
In response to an aging driving population, many
states have imposed more stringent licensing
requirements, such as in-person renewals and
mandatory vision testing for senior drivers.
While only Illinois and New Hampshire require
older drivers to take a road test, several
recent high-profile accidents involving older
drivers have caused legislators in a number of
states to consider tightening licensing
requirements for older drivers.
The report is titled “Regulating
Older Drivers: Are New Policies Needed?”
It was funded and produced by the
RAND Institute for
Civil Justice and is available at
www.rand.org. Other authors of the report
include Seth A. Seabury and Laura Zakaras of
RAND.
The RAND Institute for Civil Justice helps make
the civil justice system more efficient and
equitable by supplying government leaders,
private decision-makers and the public with the
results of objective, empirically based,
analytic research.
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