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 Support for Barack Obama surges, according to
The Harris Poll …New data shows a
substantial increase in support for the U.S.
Senator
ROCHESTER, N.Y., March 15 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/
-- A new Harris Poll finds that Senator Barack Obama has increased
his support substantially since a previous poll in early February,
and his support is now almost as strong as that for Senator Hillary
Clinton.
The new Harris Poll asks the
public questions about current and potential presidential candidates
that are slightly different from those asked in most other polls.
First, people are asked who, on a long list of 26 political leaders,
they would "consider voting for." Then they are asked who, of all
the listed leaders, "they would most likely vote for." Unlike some
other polls, all adults regardless of their party affiliation are
asked about all candidates.
This is a Harris Poll of 2,776
U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between March 1
and 12, 2007. Respondents were able to review the list of all 26
potential candidates to say whom they would consider and prefer.
Like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be
read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential
"horse race," at a very early stage in the race. We will review the
data on the Republican candidates in an upcoming column.
Senator Obama's gains since the February poll include:
-- Among all adults, 41 percent would now consider voting for him; the
same number as would consider voting for Senator Clinton. In February,
Clinton led Obama by 45 percent to 37 percent on this question;
-- Among Democrats, 59 percent would consider voting for Obama, up from 53
percent in February. This is still below the number of Democrats who
would consider voting for Senator Clinton (68%), but her support is
down from 74 percent in February;
-- Among Independents, people are slightly more likely to consider voting
for Obama (42%) than for Clinton (36%). In February Clinton led Obama
by 40 percent to 35 percent;
-- When it comes to the public's first choice for president, Clinton still
leads Obama by 15 percent to 12 percent among all adults. However, this
is down from a 20 percent to 10 percent lead in February;
-- Among Democrats, Senator Clinton still has a clear (27% to 21%) lead
over Obama as first choice, but this is down from 36 percent to 18
percent in February;
-- Among Independents, almost equal numbers prefer Clinton (10%) and
Obama (9%). In February Clinton had a two-to-one (16% to 8%) lead.
Other Democratic Candidates
Senators Clinton and Obama are
not, of course, the only Democratic contenders for the presidency.
Former Senator John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore still
have many supporters, and they are the only other two candidates to
have the support of more than 15 percent.
The levels of support for Edwards
and Gore are similar, but Gore has picked up a little support since
February, helped perhaps by his Oscar. Equal percentages of all
adults (29%) say they would consider voting for Edwards and Gore,
whose support is up slightly since February (26%).
Democrats are slightly more likely
to consider voting for Gore (49%) than for Edwards (45%). In
February, they were tied at 44 percent.
When it comes to their support as
the first choice, six percent of all adults pick Gore and five
percent prefer Edwards. Among Democrats, 11 percent prefer Gore (up
from 7% in February) and eight percent choose Edwards (down from 9%
in February).
TABLE 1
DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ADULTS "WOULD
CONSIDER VOTING FOR" FOR PRESIDENT
"Although the U.S. presidential
election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people
who may run for president. If you were to vote and had
to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people would you consider voting?"
Base: All adults
Republican Democrat Independent
Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar
Hillary Clinton 45 41 10 7 74 68 40 36
Barack Obama 37 41 15 16 53 59 35 42
John Edwards 28 29 10 8 44 45 27 29
Al Gore 26 29 5 4 44 49 23 26
John Kerry 12 14 2 3 23 22 9 12
Joe Lieberman 12 10 14 11 12 10 10 9
Wesley Clark 8 9 3 2 12 13 8 9
Howard Dean 8 8 2 2 13 13 8 8
Bill Richardson 8 8 3 2 12 13 6 7
Joe Biden 7 7 2 1 12 12 6 6
Dennis Kucinich 4 5 * * 8 8 4 4
Christopher Dodd 4 3 1 * 7 7 3 2
Mike Gravel 1 2 - * 2 3 1 1
Note: Multiple-response question
*Less than .5%; "-"No response
DEMOCRATIC LEADERS WHO WOULD BE FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT
"If you could vote for one candidate, who would you most likely vote for?"
Republican Democrat Independent
Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar
Hillary Clinton 20 15 4 3 36 27 16 10
Barack Obama 10 12 3 2 18 21 8 9
John Edwards 5 5 1 1 9 8 4 4
John Kerry 1 1 * * 2 1 1 1
Bill Richardson 1 1 * * 1 2 1 1
Joe Biden 1 * * * 1 1 1 -
Joe Lieberman 1 1 * * * 1 1 1
Dennis Kucinich * 1 * - * 1 * 1
Wesley Clark * 1 * * * 1 * 1
Note: Howard Dean, Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel were chosen by less
Note: Columns do not add to 100% because this table does not include
Republicans who were chosen, and those who chose Republicans or who
did not choose any of the listed candidates or who said a third
party candidate or that they would not vote.
*Less than .5%; "-"No response
Methodology
This Harris Poll(R) was conducted
online within the United States between March 1 and 12, 2007 among
2,776 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex,
race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted
where necessary to bring them into line with their actual
proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also
used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All surveys are subject to several
sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a
sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to
question wording and/or question order, deliberately or
unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including
refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and
weighting.
With one exception (sampling
error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated.
There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error"
for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples,
with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the
probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error)
is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of
2,776 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability
that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- two percentage
points. However that does not take other sources of error into
account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and
therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the
principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J30279A (March)
Q 492, 494
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is the 12th
largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The
company provides innovative research, insights and strategic advice
to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to
measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris
Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest
running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market
research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the
world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online.
Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United
States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiary
Novatris in France and through a global network of independent
market research firms. The service bureau, HISB, provides its market
research industry clients with mixed-mode data collection, panel
development services as well as syndicated and tracking research
consultation. More information about Harris Interactive may be
obtained at www.harrisinteractive.com.
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