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Bulletin
to HR managers and future retirees:
The work force is changing and
you’re at risk
Demographers are
predicting the perfect storm, a generation of young immigrants
meeting a gigantic geriatric generation, with nothing in between.
Over the next three decades, 76 million baby boomers will be walking
out the company door, with only 46 million Xers waiting to step in.
By 2025, the
size of the elderly population will swell by 80 percent, with a mere
15 percent increase in the number of working-age adults and
children.
In 2020 according to the Census Bureau, 1 in 6 Americans will be 65
or older compared to today’s profile of 1 in 8. By 2030 it will be 1
in 5. We’re looking at a significant increase of Hispanic residents,
from 30 million today to 53 million in 2020. The median age of
Hispanics will be less than 29, compared to almost 38 for the total
population. And women will earn 54 percent of university degrees,
compared to a 6 percent decline among men getting four-year degrees.
These dry numbers are the ingredients of an enormous transformation
of the work force, and of our society. The key driver of change is
boomers’ impending retirement. They didn’t have enough children to
take their place — an average of 1.9 children compared to 3.1
children parented by the previous generation.
Economists predict a shortage of 6 million individuals with
four-year degrees within the next 10 years.
These impending labor shortages are concealed today by the economic
slowdown and temporary spike in unemployment. But I promise you,
it’s temporary. The severity of the problem will become more
palpable in the near future as the economy recovers and these
conflicting trends — increasing retirements and a contracting supply
of young educated new employees — become more apparent and urgent.
Here are some suggestions to pre-empt the shortages:
‰Firms must stay connected to their older workers. According to the
AARP, 80 percent of baby boomers say they are planning to work at
least part-time during retirement. Intel retains electronic and
social links with its retirees because these are the individuals who
may be the answer to Intel’s future shortages.
‰Get used to working with women in senior positions. They’re
becoming more educated than their male counterparts and, if treated
well, they’ll stay in the work force. They are the next knowledge
solution and haven’t been developed or advanced sufficiently to this
point.
‰Start focusing on employee retention as a strategic imperative.
It’s easy to take current employees for granted when skilled
candidates are banging on the door. But the tables are turning.
Target the right employees for recognition, appreciation and
rewards, customize career development plans to individual employees,
and offer flexible work arrangements that are also family- and
elder- friendly.
‰Rethink early retirement programs. While they may be a short-term
fix, they often create disincentives to retiree re-employment, and
saddle employers with enormous financial liabilities.
‰Get used to a multilingual, multicultural work force. In America,
younger employees will be increasingly Hispanic and Asian. American
companies will turn progressively to non-U.S. sources of labor to
meet their extreme shortages.
‰Work with local high schools, vocational education and community
colleges to support and lock in trained graduates through
sponsorships, apprenticeships and internships.
‰Create a culture where training and continuous learning are routine
and frequent, whether for computer literacy, data-based
decision-making, leadership, or appreciation of diversity of all
kinds. Think about moving to aging parts of the country — such as
Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania — since these residents might be
tempted to return to the work force when you’re desperate.
‰Use technology to solve labor shortages. It’s not just assembly
line manufacturing that can be replaced with robotics. The work of
the bank teller, auditor, paralegal, or librarian can be
increasingly substituted with smart technologies. It will soon be
consultants, teachers, and nurses whose shortages can be alleviated
with more effective use of artificial intelligence solutions.
It’s easy to get lulled into complacency when labor demand is soft.
But the demographic trends are pointing toward a precarious
convergence — a flood of boomer retirements, few successors and an
influx of new immigrants. The expected result is a work force too
small and ill-prepared to keep up with the demands of a
knowledge-intense economy, or a bulging generation on social
security and Medicare. It’s time to prepare with forward strategies. |