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New study projects 13.2 million people
with Alzheimer’s by 2050
Aug. 20, 2003 - Scientists project that some
13.2 million older Americans will have
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) by 2050 unless new
ways are found to prevent or treat the
disease.
According
to these latest estimates of the current and
future prevalence of AD, reported by Denis
A. Evans, M.D., and colleagues of
Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke’s Medical Center
in Chicago, the numbers of older people with
AD -- now at 4.5 million – will grow
dramatically as the population ages. The
most notable increases will be among people
age 85 and older, when by mid-century 8
million people in that age group may have
the disease.
The
projections appear in the August 2003 issue
of the Archives of Neurology. “These
updated estimates from Evans and his group
underscore the challenge that we face in the
fight against AD,” says Marcelle Morrison-Bogorad,
Ph.D., NIA Associate Director for the
Neuroscience and Neuropsychology of Aging
Program, which funded the research. “But I
am also optimistic that current research
will lead to strategies for intervention
early in the disease so that we can keep
these projections from becoming a reality."
The
estimates were derived from a study of the
incidence (number of new cases of AD per
year) over 4 years among 3,913 people 65 and
older in Chicago. The researchers then
calculated the national prevalence of AD
(the number of people at any particular time
who have the disease) using population
projections from the Census and death rates
from the National Center for Health
Statistics. Their estimates, based on Census
Bureau “middle series” population
projections, are:
Number of People with AD, by Age Group (in
millions)
Year Age
65-74 Age 75-84 Age85+
Total
2000
0.3 2.4
1.8 4.5
2010
0.3 2.4
2.4 5.1
2020
0.3 2.6
2.8 5.7
2030
0.5 3.8
3.5 7.7
2040
0.4 5.0
5.6 11.0
2050
0.4 4.8
8.0 13.2
In
2000, 7 percent of those with AD were age
65-74, 53 percent age 75-84, and 40 percent
age 85 and older. By 2050, it is projected
that 60 percent of people with AD will be 85
and older.
In
2000, among people age 65-74, 17 percent of
the cases of AD were classified as severe,
compared with 20 percent severe among people
75-84 and 28 percent severe at age 85 or
older.
“Declines in death rates after age 65
mean that more people will survive to the
oldest ages, where risk of AD is greatest,”
notes Evans. “These numbers validate the
current thinking that we must do what we can
as early as possible in the disease process,
prior to advanced age, if we are to head off
these very high rates of AD in the future.”
Over a
decade ago, Evans and colleagues estimated
the national prevalence of AD, based on an
East Boston, MA, population study. The new
estimates are similar to those earlier
findings.
The
updated findings were reported by Evans,
Liesi E. Hebert, Julia L. Bienias, and David
A. Bennett of Rush and by Paul A. Scherr of
the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. The NIA, along with funding this
study, also supports the Rush Alzheimer’s
Disease Center. The Alzheimer’s Association
also provided funding for the prevalence
study.
AD is an
irreversible disorder of the brain, robbing
those who have it of memory, and eventually,
overall mental and physical function,
leading to death. For more information on
such research, as well as on biological,
epidemiological, clinical, and social and
behavioral research on AD, two new
publications are available from the NIA:
2001-2002 Alzheimer’s Disease Progress
Report and Alzheimer’s Disease: Unraveling
the Mystery, which includes a CD-Rom
animation of what happens to the brain in
AD. These publications may be viewed at
NIA’s AD-dedicated website
www.alzheimers.org,
the Institute’s Alzheimer’s Disease
Education and Referral (ADEAR) Center, or by
calling ADEAR at 1-800-438-4380.
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