'Baby boomers to reach 120'

QUANTUM leaps in medical technology could see many baby boomers and their children reach the grand old age of 120, an American specialist has claimed.

The longer lifespan would be driven by developments in biotechnology, gene therapy, nanopharmaceuticals and diagnostic and therapeutic advances.

Dr Robert Goldman, Clinical Assistant Professor of Medicine at Oklahoma State University's Department of Medicine, will present his vision to GPs at a conference in Melbourne tomorrow.

Dr Goldman said lifespans had increased dramatically over the last two centuries and would continue to do so.

"I don't think tomorrow you're going to see millions of people living beyond 120, but I think that will be something that will be achievable over time," he said.

"You're going to have very large segments of the population that are 100, 110, 120 in relatively good health at some point in the not too distant future.

"Certainly within 50 years we'll see quite a few of those."

He said as recently as 200 years ago the average lifespan was around 26 years.

People could expect to make it to 48 at the turn of the last century, and today people in developed countries lived for an average of 70 to 80 years.

That was already being increased to 85 to 90 years thanks to more effective methods of detecting and treating disease, he said.

Dr Goldman predicted within the next 25 to 50 years medicine would advance at the same rate as telecommunications and the internet had in recent years.

The next increase would be driven by developments in biotechnology, gene therapy, nanopharmaceuticals and diagnostic and therapeutic advances. Miniaturisation of drug delivery technologies would make pharmaceuticals more powerful and effective than ever before, while about 60 new neurophysiological drugs, for the treatment of brain diseases, were in the pipeline, he said.

Not only would people live longer, they would die healthy, he argued.

"If you go back 100 years the three main causes of death were pneumonia, diarrhoea and influenza.

"Today it's heart disease, cancer and stroke.

"In the future it will probably be suicide, homicide or aerospace accidents."

Dr Goldman said: "In the US there are over 80 million baby boomers who want this, who do not want to age like their parents are, and these people are willing to pay for this type of care.

"Initially many of these therapies will be expensive and only subject to those people who can afford them or are willing to pay for them.

"Over time there will be more people that will be able to afford them just like they can afford a cell phone."

Despite the vistas opening up in terms of longevity and lifelong good health, Dr Goldman says would-be centenarians will have to match medical opportunity with lifestyle factors to benefit.

No magic pill would ever eliminate the need to exercise, eat well, visit the doctor and follow medical advice, he said.

Dr Goldman is founder of the National Academy of Sport Medicine and the American Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine.

He will address the Australasian General Practitioner Conference and Exhibition (GPCE) at the Melbourne Exhibition Centre.